Shares of lithium mining companies have staged a notable rebound over the past two weeks after months of declines, driven by concerns over potential supply disruptions. Last month, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), China’s electric-vehicle battery giant, announced it had halted production at one of its most important mines after the expiration of a key operating permit.

The company said operations were suspended at the Jianxiawo mine—one of the world’s largest lithium deposits, accounting for around 3% of global supply—sparking speculation that Beijing could suspend additional projects as part of its efforts to address industrial overcapacity.

Sigma Lithium (NASDAQ: SGML) led the rally, surging 17.3% on the news, followed by Lithium Americas (NYSE: LAC) up 10.2%, Piedmont Lithium (NASDAQ: PLL) up 8.7%, Albemarle (NYSE: ALB) up 7.8%, and SQM (NYSE: SQM) up 7.6%. Lithium hydroxide futures jumped to their highest in over a year, while the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (NYSEARCA: LIT) climbed nearly 6% toward a nine-month high.

Albemarle, based in Charlotte, North Carolina, received multiple upgrades from Wall Street banks following these developments. UBS raised its rating on ALB from “sell” to “neutral,” setting a price target of $89, about 4.8% above current levels.

UBS forecast spodumene prices could rise as much as 32% and lithium chemicals up to 17% over the next three years, citing recent shutdowns, including the Jianxiawo halt in August, the suspension at Zangge Mining on July 14, potential closures of seven lepidolite mines in Yichun after September 30, and curtailed output at Citic Guoan’s Qinghai facility in late August. UBS also said Jianxiawo could remain offline for a full year amid stricter mining-rights inspections. Albemarle shares have risen 16.7% over the past 30 days.

Yet several Wall Street firms have warned that lithium bulls may be overestimating the impact. The global lithium market still has abundant supply, and actual disruptions may prove less significant than the recent equity rally suggests. For example, lithium carbonate inventories in China rose more than 30% to 150,000 tons in May, while producers continue to battle for market share despite lower prices.

KeyBanc analyst Alexey Yefremov cautioned investors against chasing the rally, warning that long-term prices “lack fundamental support” given the buildup in inventories.

Beyond the recent rally, lithium has been in a prolonged downturn reflecting not only oversupply and slowing EV sales but also major policy and structural shifts across three continents. China has restructured its subsidy programs, the United States has imposed tariffs, and Chile is moving to expand state control—changes that are reshaping cost structures and capital flows. At the same time, new supply from Africa and Australia is keeping prices under pressure.

Uncertainty remains over whether Beijing will strictly enforce production cuts. Analysts warn that if reductions fall short of expectations, sentiment could reverse quickly, triggering a correction in lithium stocks.

Global supply still exceeds demand, challenging earlier forecasts that inventories would normalize by 2025. Prices remain weak due to a combination of rising output from new projects, selective production cuts, and technological advances reducing lithium intensity in batteries—such as the wider adoption of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries and the emergence of sodium-ion (Na-ion) alternatives.

LFP batteries, which use lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO₄) as a cathode material, are known for their safety, long cycle life, and lower cost because they avoid expensive or conflict-linked metals like cobalt and nickel. They are increasingly favored for EVs and renewable energy storage systems.

Na-ion batteries are an emerging alternative to lithium-ion, offering potential cost savings, better safety, and performance in low-temperature conditions. Although still early in development and facing challenges such as lower energy density and incomplete supply chains, Na-ion cells deliver faster charging and longer cycle life than some lithium chemistries, making them a promising technology, particularly for countries rich in sodium resources such as India.

US stock indices rose during Monday’s session as bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut continued to build.

The gains come ahead of key US inflation data due this week, which the Fed is expected to monitor closely for signals before initiating rate cuts.

Data released Friday by the US Department of Labor showed that the economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, compared with expectations of 75,000. The report was seen as highly negative.

The figures also revealed that the US unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, in line with analysts’ expectations.

Following the data, market bets on a Fed rate cut in its upcoming meeting increased, with probabilities rising to around 98%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

As of 17:11 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1% (24 points) to 45,424. The broader S&P 500 rose 0.3% (17 points) to 6,499, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.7% (148 points) to 21,848.

Copper prices posted slight gains on Monday, supported by a weaker US dollar, a decline in inventories registered at the London Metal Exchange (LME), and hopes of stronger import demand from China this month.

The benchmark three-month copper contract on the LME edged up 0.1% to $9,902.50 per metric ton at 09:47 GMT.

Import appetite from China, the world’s largest consumer, also underpinned the market, with the Yangshan copper premium rising 1.8% to $58 per ton — its highest in three months. The Chinese yuan climbed to a one-week high against the US dollar, making dollar-priced metals more attractive to Chinese buyers.

China’s imports of unwrought copper reached 425,000 tons in August, down from July but higher than a year earlier. Imports of copper concentrates climbed to 2.76 million tons, the highest in four months. Analysts at ANZ noted in a report: “Falling treatment charges have failed to curb China’s appetite for copper concentrates. Favorable import parity and expectations of weaker domestic output are likely to keep refined copper imports strong in September.”

Meanwhile, China’s overall export growth slowed to a six-month low in August, while imports rose 1.3%, compared with 4.1% in July.

LME copper inventories stood at 155,825 tons, with 2,125 tons withdrawn across several locations and a fresh 8,500-ton cancellation in South Korea, according to daily exchange data.

Other base metals:

Aluminium gained 0.7% to $2,618.50 a ton, after available stocks in LME warehouses fell to 442,425 tons — their lowest since late July — following new cancellations of 32,000 tons in Malaysia.

Zinc added 0.1% to $2,864.00 a ton.

Lead climbed 0.4% to $1,992.50 a ton.

Tin rose 0.5% to $34,345.00 a ton.

Nickel advanced 0.6% to $15,315.00 a ton.

Bitcoin held largely steady near the $111,000 mark on Monday in choppy trading, as crypto markets showed a muted reaction to growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last up 0.3% at $111,164.6 as of 02:40 Eastern Time (06:40 GMT).

Bitcoin had shed more than 6% over the past month, erasing gains after reaching record highs above $124,000 in mid-August.

Rate-cut bets fail to spark fresh momentum

These limited moves came despite rising market expectations that the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 basis points at its September 17 meeting, with some analysts pointing to the possibility of a larger 50-bp cut.

Friday’s US jobs report showed a sharp slowdown in hiring and an uptick in unemployment to 4.3% in August, strengthening bets on easing.

Global markets broadly responded with optimism: equities gained momentum, US Treasury yields fell toward five-month lows, and gold extended its rally. Still, political developments in countries such as Japan and France added an element of caution to risk sentiment.

Liquidity backdrop and inflation data in focus

Improved global liquidity conditions, typically supportive of risk assets like cryptocurrencies, are expected under looser monetary policy. Yet investors remain cautious ahead of key US inflation releases — the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) — which could weigh more heavily on the Fed’s decision.

Corporate developments

On the institutional side, Japanese hotel operator Metaplanet Inc (3350.TYO) disclosed on Monday that it had purchased 136 Bitcoin worth roughly $15.2 million at an average price of $111,783 per coin.

The acquisition lifted the company’s total holdings to 20,136 BTC, cementing its position among the largest corporate holders of digital assets.

However, the company’s share price fell as investors expressed skepticism over such aggressive treasury management strategies.